Maybe it all comes down to cream cheese. Specifically, a 50-pound bulk carton that accompanies the fantastic everything bagels at Goldberg's in Westhampton Beach, NY.
Last year, that delicious supply had jumped to around $180 a carton, from $100. Now it's 'only' $150 – going in the right direction, but nowhere near where it used to be.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Labor Department will release its monthly consumer price index (CPI). Economists are predicting a 3.1% annual increase in prices for June – a figure that could be closer to 5% when taking out food and energy costs. That's good news because it would be the slowest increase since late 2021.
But it's bad news because, like the delicious schmear applied abundantly at Goldberg's, that's still way too high. When a bagel with cream cheese doubles in cost the taste is tainted.
So, 'getting there, going in the right direction' is the language we will hear about the state of inflation Wednesday morning. Sadly for the bulls, it's the same-old story at this point, and not what the Federal Reserve wants to see. Cream cheese, like everything else we get when we go out to eat, go for pick-up or grab at the store is just way too high – but not as high as it was.
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